The older generation of American diplomats such as Kissinger and Paulson have always been "old friends" familiar to the Chinese people. However, with the current changes in the Biden administration's China policy, these older generations can still be successful. Vision for China? Compared with previous US presidents, the diplomatic team formed after Biden took office includes old, middle-aged and young people. There are not only senior and senior, but also many new generations of political elites, and even some "post-80s" and " post-90s" political elites. Stepping into everyone's sight, they have gradually become White House diplomatic think tanks. What is the difference between them and the older generation of political elites who are proficient in Chinese and have worked?How will they affect the future, and how are their political elites different? How will they affect China and the United States in the future
Young US officials mostly advocate being tough on China
"Post-90s" Gerwitz: formerly an intern at Caijing magazine
Julian Gewirtz, Director of China Affairs of the White House National Security Council, is a "post-90s" and his father, Paul Gewirtz, is the director of the Yale Law School China Center. Influenced by his family, Gerwitz has studied as an intern at Alibaba (Hong Kong) and Caijing magazine since he was a child. In 2013, he obtained a bachelor's degree from Harvard University, and later studied for a doctorate in modern Chinese history. Chinese politics and politics in the 1980s with. After completing his Ph.D., Gerwitzcheng joined the Association for Foreign Relations as a senior researcher in China Studies. Combing Gerwitz and the article has been exploring, thinking, and inquiring
Gervey, Director of China Affairs, White House National Security Council
Gerwitz, who is very interested in Sino-US economic exchanges, took a short break from school and entered the Obama administration as the Department of Energy. In 2017, he published a 2017 book devoted to this issue. He published a book "Possible Partners "devoted to this issue, systematically sorting out the influence of China, economics circles and such exchanges since the reform and opening up. The book compares the policy study in the book to Make a river. This year he will also publish a new book" Reshaping China", which will analyze the changes in China since the 1990s.
Gerwitz advocates multilateralism and advocates that the United States should cooperate with its allies in Asia and Europe to implement strategies, "including an aging ecological crisis, a large number of border disputes, and a decline in international prestige.".
"Post-80s" Du Rusong: once went to Yunnan University to exchange for one year
Gerwitz's superior, Du Rusong, Senior Director of China Affairs at the White House National Security Council, is an Indian "post-80s." He studied East Asian Studies at Princeton University. In 2012, he was awarded a Fulbright project scholarship funded by the US government to travel to China for exchanges. At that time, instead of choosing popular first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, he exchanged one year at Yunnan University in Kunming. During this period, he traveled to the Himalayas to study the border issues between China and Myanmar, China and Pakistan, and China and India.
Senior Director of China Affairs, White House National Security Council
In 2018, Du Rusong received his Ph.D. from Harvard University. During his time at Harvard, Du Rusong studied under Yu Jiang Yin, one of the first scholars in the American academic circle who began to study China's diplomatic strategy. Jiang Yien opposed the so-called "failure of contact" with China, and believed that peaceful coexistence between China and the United States is more important. Although Du Rusong continued Jiang Yien's research and continued to study China's foreign strategy, he paid more attention to China's current progress in economic, scientific and technological, military and other fields. The homepage of his personal website clearly shows that his research focuses on China, grand strategy, and "Indo-Pacific" security.
The experience of studying at Princeton University and Harvard University has laid a solid foundation for his Chinese studies. He is proficient in Chinese and is good at collecting and interpreting official Chinese documents. According to reports, Du Rusong's new book "Long-term Strategy: China's Grand Strategy to Replace the American Order", which will be published this year, cited a large number of official documents and publications, as well as official memoirs and other materials.
Although Du Rusong is not inclined to adopt aggressive and hard-line measures in his China policy, he pays attention to the long-term nature of Sino-US competition. In early 2021, Du Rusong and the National Security Council's Indo-Pacific Affairs Coordinator Campbell proposed in an article that the United States should give priority to low-cost and asymmetric measures when facing "China's challenges." Flexible organization of allied groups based on different issues.
Su Hao, director of the Center for Strategic and Peace Research of China Foreign Affairs University, cited the “China Affairs Research Group” newly established by the US Department of Defense as an example. The three researchers in this group are all “post-80s ”. The college stayed in school, and Ratner used to specialize in China's national security issues at the New American Security Center.
Han Mini, a member of the "China Strategic Working Group" of the US Department of Defense
In Su Hao's view, the "hawks" displayed by the new generation of American political elites are actually the result of the shrinking power gap between China and the United States. He believes that the older generation of "China Experts" scholars or politicians, they knew China was relatively backward. In that era, the United States helped China develop and China also learned from Western developed countries. Therefore, the older generation "China "Tong" generally has a kind of friendship and even a "overlooking" perspective on China .
But the new generation sees China in the process of getting richer to stronger. They see more of China's more advanced and prosperous side. They don't have the “feelings” similar to those of the older generation and lack the deep-seated sense of China. The emotional accumulation of China is more from a realistic level, feeling that China is a relatively powerful country, so as to consider its own interests.
And Zhao Suisheng, a professor at the Joseph Kerber School of International Relations at the University of Denver, who has been in the United States for nearly 40 years, pointed out the deeper reasons. He believes that the increasing number of US "hawks" toward China is actually a sense of anxiety caused by the decline of US power. Because the beginning of the US policy toward China was based on a very important understanding, that is, "the United States can change China." However, the historical process finally told the United States that this change is largely a wishful thinking of the United States, and China has not made changes in accordance with the wishes of the United States. Therefore, in this context, the United States rethinks its engagement policy, and the result of the reflection is that the engagement policy has failed and that it has created "threats and challenges" to the interests of the United States.
Zhao Suisheng also said that he has been in the United States for so long and has never felt that the United States has no confidence in its own system as it is today. The United States has lost confidence in its own economic and technological capabilities as it is today. The United States has never been as good as today. The division of American society has created so many fears. Therefore, in this context, if they want to defend some of their problems, they have enlarged China's challenges to a large extent .
There is a new generation of "Zhihua" faction that specializes in the United States. Why do they play the "technology card"?
On the other hand, after professional academic training, these new generations of political elites can be described as "specializing in the technical industry" and tend to "analyze Chinese behavior from micro-issues." "Technology card" and so on. Wang Wen , executive dean of the Chongyang Institute of Finance at Renmin University of China, believes that the three huge areas that the United States currently leads China are being chased up, and even may be surpassed.
First, the influence of the United States in the world. In recent years, Trump and the most declining Chinese model in the United States, the attractiveness of Chinese society, and China's soft power have been increasingly accepted by the world. Second, to accept the impact of catching up, but to some extent, the catch-up of these two items requires more time to prevent China's rising advantage. However , the catch-up of scientific and technological strength is just right in front of us, why more " "China Connect" puts more emphasis on the prevention of scientific and technological strength.In the few months since Biden came up, he has continuously introduced some specific measures like the "Endless Frontier Act" to come to China and learn from the United States or gain some American possibilities.
The young "Knowledge of China" is more "rigid" towards China. What impact will it have on Biden's policy?
Zhao Suisheng, a professor at the School of International Relations at the University of Denver in the United States, said that many of his students are there, and even these students are currently limited in their ability to influence the United States' China policy based on their age and level. To a large extent, the co-opetition relationship between China and the United States is caused by the structural problems of "the rise of China + the decline of the United States" and "the conflict between China and the United States + cooperation". Therefore, professionals including experts on China issues Can only provide some policy recommendations, the decision makers are still at the top of the White House.
What should I do if the cable heats up? Biden took the opportunity to peddle "big infrastructure", and slapped the "China card"
Since the announcement of the infrastructure construction package (the "big infrastructure" plan) at the end of March this year, US President Biden has repeatedly promoted the plan on various occasions in order to be approved by the US Congress.
In recent days, the Northwestern United States is being hit by extreme heat waves, and record-breaking high temperatures have appeared in many places. This has also caused serious damage to local infrastructure-roads cracked, cables melted, and tram services were forced to be suspended. In addition, in order to cope with the huge power demand caused by residents' use of air-conditioning, the local power company was forced to take alternate power outage measures.
▲On June 28, local time, people took a rest at a summer station in Portland, USA. According to Xinhua News Agency
According to US media reports, when Biden visited Wisconsin on June 29, local time, he once again "utilized" the current high temperature difficulties encountered in the United States and pointed out that his infrastructure plan may be part of the solution.
Biden: Infrastructure plans are part of the solution
As the wildfire season is approaching, the west coast of the United States is hit by extreme heat. Experts predict that fires exceeding normal levels may occur in most parts of the region, which may cause devastating effects.
A record heat wave has melted Portland's cables. As of now, many people in the northwestern United States have died of high temperatures, and thousands of people have urgently sought medical treatment due to physical discomfort and diseases caused by high temperatures. This prompted U.S. President Biden and Vice President Harris to meet urgently with the governors of western states to discuss the best plan to prevent and respond to wildfires.
▲Washington State, USA, the high temperature caused the road surface to crack. According to Bloomberg
Biden said at a roundtable meeting with the governors of western states on Wednesday that his infrastructure construction plan may be part of the solution. Biden said, “We have the opportunity to do something that not only solves today’s problems, but also enables us to move forward, create truly good jobs, and promote economic growth.”
Last week, Biden and senators from both parties reached an agreement on nearly $1 trillion in infrastructure proposals, including $579 billion in new expenditures, mainly for the reconstruction of physical infrastructure. Biden pointed out at the roundtable that the plan also includes the allocation of US$50 billion to deal with extreme weather events, such as raising the income level of firefighters to ensure that they can be paid accordingly when they undertake hard work.
Biden also mentioned in his Wisconsin speech that the high temperatures in the Northwestern United States indicate that, as extreme weather events caused by climate change become more frequent, better power grids are needed. At the beginning of the speech, Biden emphasized the importance of investing in infrastructure, declaring that this is a "generational investment", an infrastructure investment plan that can modernize infrastructure, create high-paying jobs, and "guarantee America to lead the world." .
▲Portland, USA, the high temperature caused the cable to melt. Screenshot from Twitter
He said that crumbling infrastructure has caused damage to every American: In Wisconsin, there are about 600 bridges in urgent need of repair; in the United States, 10 million homes contain lead in their drinking water; heat waves hit the United States every year... …Biden said that his infrastructure plan will help solve the problems of transportation, power grids, drinking water and other issues, and provide good employment opportunities in the process.
Infrastructure plans meet Republican resistance
What does Biden intend to play the "China card" frequently?
Since Biden announced its "big infrastructure" plan (also known as the "U.S. Jobs Program") at the end of March, it has encountered tremendous resistance from the Republican Party. In order to get the bill passed by both parties as soon as possible, Biden has frequently "selled" its infrastructure plans on various occasions, including at a chip industry summit.
On April 12, local time, when Biden held an online semiconductor and supply chain resiliency CEO summit with major corporate executives, he also missed the opportunity to promote his infrastructure plans. It is reported that the attendees of this "chip summit" include General Motors CEO Mary Barra, Ford CEO Jim Farley, Stalantis CEO Carlos Tavares, Alphabet CEO Sandor Pichai, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger and representatives of Samsung, Hewlett-Packard and other technology companies.
▲On April 12, local time, US President Biden, White House National Security Adviser Sullivan, National Economic Council Chairman Deiss, and Secretary of Commerce Raymondo held an online "chip summit" with senior executives of many companies. Capitol Hill
In Biden's plan, 50 billion US dollars will be reserved for the semiconductor industry, focusing on expanding the US chip manufacturing industry. Biden said that chips are infrastructure, and the United States is actively investing in semiconductors and batteries. The US employment plan is part of it. Its purpose is to revitalize the US manufacturing industry and protect the supply chain.
In order to promote the infrastructure plan, Biden has repeatedly played the "China card". On June 29, local time, in a Wisconsin speech, he said, "The plan is important because China invests much more in infrastructure than we do."
In fact, shortly after Biden’s “big infrastructure” plan was announced, some American media said that a large part of the plan had a clear purpose. The huge investment in the industry competes.
According to statistics, Biden mentioned China six times when he announced the plan. Once he said: "This is the focus of the competition between the United States and China and other countries in the world. Can it create well-being for the people?"
However, some well-known American financial media commented on this that Biden's high-profile infrastructure investment plan designed to enable the United States to win the innovation competition still has a considerable gap with China.
According to White House news, Biden will travel to Surfside near Miami on Thursday, local time, to express condolences to the families of the victims of the collapsed apartment building and thank the rescuers. White House spokesperson Jane Psaki said that Biden supports investigations into the accident and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been authorized to investigate the cause of the accident.
Psaki said that if Biden’s support for the investigation allows the United States to learn how to protect the country’s infrastructure, “it’s clear that the president will support it.”
After being nicknamed "Horror Joe", Biden once again acted strangely, and the people called it terrible.
According to a domestic media report on June 30, the behavior of US President Biden in his speech in Wisconsin after he was nicknamed "Terror Joe" by the American people after the "weird" behavior occurred at the White House press conference on June 24 Once again "scared" the American people and sparked heated discussions.
According to "Daily Mail", Bloomberg and other media reports, Biden went to Wisconsin for inspections and vigorously promoted his infrastructure and tax plans to the local people. In his speech, Biden "worked hard" to persuade voters to believe that his infrastructure and taxation plan would bring economic benefits, and also explained to the American people how to obtain corresponding checks for children under 12 years of age. But then, Biden suddenly leaned over and looked at the camera and said in a low voice, "Hey, guys , I think it's time to cut taxes for ordinary people. The rich are doing very well. Seriously, why can't this be a tax cut for working-class people? "
Regarding Biden's sudden move, although some American people support Biden's views, and the American people do not agree with Biden's tax reduction plan, they bluntly stated, "Tax cuts, of course, haha, future generations will still have to Give it back." Some Americans were frightened by Biden's actions and left a message on social media platforms saying that it was "embarrassing" and "a bit scary." It should be mentioned that in March, after the Biden government passed the 1.9 trillion US dollars economic stimulus plan , it put forward an unprecedented, multi-trillion dollar "infrastructure and taxation" plan. But even if the trillions of dollars have shrunk to 1 trillion dollars, the two parties in the US Congress still cannot reach an agreement on the issue of "where does the money come from?"
In addition, it is no longer a little-known secret that the richest Americans pay less taxes. On June 9, a report issued by the non-profit news organization Public Broadcasting Corporation pointed out that 25 people including the world's richest man Amazon CEO Bezos , Berkshire Hathaway CEO Buffett and Tesla CEO Musk included 25 The wealthiest Americans pay only 3.4% of their “real tax rate”. The median annual income of ordinary American households is about 70,000 US dollars, and the income tax rate is 14%. The income tax rate for high-income US households with an income of more than 628,300 US dollars is 37%.
It is worth noting that this is not the first time Biden has frightened the American people with his "weird" behavior. On June 24, Biden widened his eyes three times at a temporary press conference held at the White House, lowered his head and whispered to reporters. At the same time, Biden also forgot the tragic incident of the collapse of the Florida building in the United States, until the US Vice President Harris stepped forward to remind him. And Biden's performance at this press conference aroused all kinds of doubts among netizens, as well as ridicules about this "very horrible" communication method. Some people even gave him the nickname "Terror Joe". Some US politicians even commented that such a move seemed a bit "weird."
In fact, the 78-year-old Biden is the oldest president in the history of the United States at the time of his inauguration. Since assuming the presidency of the United States, Biden has made international jokes due to “spoken words,” “ speaking the wrong name," and "forgetting words". The endless emergence has caused many media and American people to question Biden's mental state. Some polls have repeatedly shown that most Americans believe that "Biden has long been suffering from Alzheimer's disease" and " Biden is just a puppet." The British "Daily Telegraph" even directly published an article exclaiming, "Biden is old"! As far as Biden is concerned, although the threshold for the work of the US president has been lowered, "Biden is still not competent."
Regarding Biden's "weird" behavior, the American people bluntly on social media, "Nearly 90% of Democrats think Biden did a great job, and this is why I became a former Democrat." "Biden seems to be in a vegetative state. Walking around, he can only repeat what his agent told him: "It is not uncommon for Biden to forget what is happening in the world. This is the most widely known thing in the United States today." "It is for the elderly to make Biden appear in public. Human abuse, especially for our older Americans."
"Trump's improper presidency will cause a civil war!" The iron fan warned that the American drama will be staged?
According to a domestic media report on June 30, supporters of former US President Trump have recently warned that if Trump is not reinstated, more violent conflicts will erupt in the United States.
According to the report, the US media interviewed Trump's supporters. Many people told the US media that they hoped that Trump would be reinstated before the end of the summer, and issued a warning: If Trump cannot be reinstated, there may be political violence in the United States. A female Trump supporter claimed that Trump did not lose, and they all knew he did not lose. She believes that election fraud led to the current results.
Others claimed that the military knew it was a scam. In fact, Trump won by more than 80% and emphasized that Trump will return before mid-August. The US media pointed out that on June 3, many Trump supporters gathered in Wellington, Ohio , USA to participate in a rally. The banners they held read slogans such as "Trump won" and "Biden sucks."
It is worth mentioning that after a short period of “silence” since resignation, the former US president began to appear frequently in public “before” recently, as if he was preparing for the next US presidential election. On June 30th, local time, he still criticized the current US President Biden in a speech. He condemned Biden for "deliberately creating a humanitarian disaster."
Trump claimed that Biden has formulated the most aggressive border opening policy. This may be the first time in world history that a country deliberately and systematically dismantled its own defense facilities. Biden's border policies are used by human traffickers and drug smugglers. The number of illegally crossing borders has increased by about 700% compared to when he was president of the United States, which is a consequence of Biden's policy. Trump boasted that he left Biden with the safest border in history, but he was destroyed by Biden. "He built a wall, but Biden deliberately created a humanitarian disaster." Biden must complete the border blockade immediately, otherwise the Americans will re-elect a Congress willing to do so for them.
It should be noted that while preparing for the US presidential election, Trump is also facing jail time. A number of US media revealed that on June 30, the Manhattan District Attorney in New York filed a criminal lawsuit against the Trump Organization and its chief financial officer. According to a source, the content of the lawsuit may be tax-related. He also pointed out that the Trump Organization has been facing investigations into illegal tax avoidance for several months.
Some analysts believe that if the Trump Organization is mastered with evidence of tax evasion and tax evasion, then Trump will also face the risk of prosecution and imprisonment. But a former personal lawyer of Trump said that if things develop to this point, with his understanding , Trump may push all the crimes on other people. Because Trump is a person who thinks that "even if everyone is wrong, he can't be wrong." Will Trump go to jail or re-emerge as President of the United States? Time will reveal the answer.