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20 August, 2021

The U.S. and China are not destined to fight for four reasons

Jordanian "Jordan Times" article on August 18, original title: The United States and China are not destined for World War I. In 2034, the United States and China were involved in a series of military conflicts and escalated into a devastating tactical nuclear war. Countries such as Russia, Iran and India are also involved. Suddenly, the world was on the verge of World War III. This is the scene depicted in "2034: A Novel of the Next World War". Now, including this book, more and more voices warn that conflicts between rising powers and predominant powers in the world are almost inevitable. Harvard University professor Graham Allison called this phenomenon the "Thucydides trap." He recalled the view of the ancient Greek historian: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear it brought to Sparta that made war inevitable."

Data map

Indeed, through history, it can be seen that when a rising power challenges an established power, the result is often war. But obviously there are exceptions. Compared with the rise of the United States and the decline of Britain a century ago, the United States and China today may not be more prone to wars. In today's situation, there are four reasons to believe that the US-China war can be avoided.

First, any military conflict between the two countries will quickly turn into a nuclear conflict. Therefore, the United States will find itself in the same situation as the Soviet Union. However, the "mutually assured destruction" factors that restrict the conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union also apply to the United States and China. The international community will also work hard to ensure that potential nuclear conflicts will not occur.

Second, don’t forget that, historically, China has a long-term view. Although China's military strength has grown substantially, it still lags behind the United States in almost all important measures. China has invested heavily in asymmetric weapons (such as long-range anti-ship missiles, hypersonic missiles, and cyber military applications), but within decades, it will be difficult to match the United States in conventional weapons such as aircraft and large ships.

Therefore, in China's current stage of development, it is too dangerous to have a head-on conflict with the United States. Therefore, we believe that it is unlikely that China will actively engage in a military conflict with the United States. However, the US military tends to plan for the worst and is currently focusing on potential direct conflict with China. This behavior has the color of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union.

This raises the risk of ignoring other threats. Since the Korean War, asymmetric threats have repeatedly proved to be the most difficult issue for national security. Building a force capable of dealing with the worst conditions does not guarantee the success of various wars.

The third reason why the Sino-US conflict can be avoided is that China has already won the global soft power war. China's response to the epidemic is much better than that of the United States. Through its "One Belt, One Road" initiative to fund infrastructure construction around the world, China has actively intervened in the vacancies left by the United States during President Trump's presidency. Chinese leaders are likely to examine the current situation and determine that their strategic path is correct.

Finally, China and the United States are inseparable economically. Despite Trump's launch of a trade war, the bilateral trade volume between China and the United States will still reach about US$650 billion in 2020. China is the largest trading partner of the United States. The supply chain between the two countries is huge. China holds more than $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds, most of which cannot be easily sold, otherwise it will cause huge losses.

The United States and China are destined to have various conflicts. But direct wars between nations are not necessarily one of them. (The author is Charles Krullak, former commander of the US Marine Corps, and Alex Friedman, former chief financial officer of the Gates Foundation, translated by Qiao Heng)


Get up on August 20

August 20, 2021

Only by bravely moving forward can we continue to harvest surprises. Good morning, every one of you!

Important news

On August 19, President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the Fifth China-Arab States Expo.

On the morning of August 19th, more than 20,000 cadres and masses of all ethnic groups and all walks of life in Tibet gathered in the Potala Palace Square to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the peaceful liberation of Tibet. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, President of the State and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, wrote on the congratulatory plaque "Building a beautiful and happy Tibet and fulfilling the dream of great revival". Wang Yang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and head of the central delegation attended the celebration meeting and delivered a speech.

After the recent major changes in the situation in Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban leaders and spokespersons have repeatedly expressed their views on their domestic and foreign policies through different channels. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said on August 19 that China has taken note of these positive statements and signals, and encouraged and hoped that Atta would implement his positive statements, unite with the various parties and ethnic groups in Afghanistan, and establish through dialogue and consultation as soon as possible. A broad and inclusive political structure that is in line with Afghanistan’s own national conditions, supported by the people, implements a moderate and stable domestic and foreign policies to curb various terrorism and criminal acts, and ensure a smooth transition of the situation in Afghanistan. The international community should jointly encourage and support the unity and cooperation of all parties and ethnic groups in Afghanistan to open a new chapter in Afghan history.

August 19 is the fourth "Chinese Physician's Day". The Central Propaganda Department and the National Health Commission jointly announced the advanced deeds of the "Most Beautiful Doctor" in 2021.

Strong Army News

In order to implement Chairman Xi Jinping’s important announcement on the use of China’s new crown vaccine as a global public product, at the request of the Ethiopian army and approved by the Central Military Commission, a batch of new crown vaccines aided by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army to the Ethiopian army was delivered to Ethiopia on August 19.

The "International Military Competition-2021" is about to start. Teams from China, Russia, Belarus, Egypt, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Vietnam and other countries have all entered the Korla region in Xinjiang. At present, players from various countries are racing against time to carry out adaptive training.

Recently, the last group of Russian officers and soldiers participating in the "Western Joint-2021" exercise departed from a certain air force airport in Ningxia by military plane to return home. Representatives of Chinese participating troops held a farewell ceremony at the airport.

A few days ago, a brigade of the 75th Army organized a live ammunition exercise for strengthening the key points of the infantry company to seize and control the actual soldiers. The infantry, artillery, engineers, and scouts are closely coordinated. Officers and soldiers operate new equipment and explore new tactics in actual combat drills. The actual combat capabilities of the troops such as independent reconnaissance, independent decision-making, and independent strike have been effectively tested and improved.

Recently, a brigade of naval aviation in the southern theater carried out day and night flight training.

International news

The UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2589 on August 18. The resolution aims to protect the safety of United Nations peacekeepers.

EU Commissioner for Internal Affairs Yurva Johansson stated on August 18 that the unstable situation in Afghanistan may increase the pressure on EU refugees. She called on EU member states to prepare for accepting Afghan refugees.

Weather forecast

2021/8/20

From 20:00 on August 19 to 20:00 on August 20, southern and eastern Hebei, southern Tianjin, central and western Shandong, northeastern Henan, northern Jiangsu and Anhui, western Liaoning, southern Shaanxi, western and southern Sichuan Basin, northeastern Inner Mongolia, and western Heilongjiang , Northwest Jilin and other places have heavy to heavy rains. Among them, there are local heavy rains in the south, east and west of the mountain and northeast of Henan.


Biden told a rare truth!

US President Biden finally delivered a belated speech on the situation in Afghanistan. He unequivocally defended his decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, emphasizing that the mission of the United States is only to counter terrorism and should never be nation-building.

Biden profile picture issued by Xinhua News Agency (photo by Scott Applewhite)

In President Biden’s words, it is rare to tell the truth: The United States never went to any place in the world to intervene in order to build that place. “The world’s most powerful country is the best at destruction, but has no interest in reconstruction. This constitutes a fundamental doom in the world today.” In fact, the turmoil in many parts of the world today is not a “local specialty”. It is "Made in America".

Obviously it is the source of chaos in the world, but it is fascinated by self-confidence. The hypocrisy and distortion of American values ​​have both historical roots and realistic manifestations, which can be examined and analyzed from three levels.

One is the hypocrisy of historical view. Innate mission awareness is an important part of American diplomatic philosophy. Its basic meaning is that the United States is entrusted by God and bears a special responsibility and mission for the development of human society and the destiny of mankind itself. For this reason, the United States regards itself as the only moral state in the world, uses its own right and wrong standards to measure the value systems and behavior patterns of other countries, and believes that it has the obligation and responsibility to spread American values ​​and ideologies to all parts of the world. Especially after the end of the Cold War, as the world's only superpower, the American academic, political, and diplomatic circles gradually showed a tendency to take all the credit for victory in World War II. This extreme self-view of history has not only created the arrogance of the United States today, but also allowed the United States to make enemies on all sides, adding instability to the international situation.

The second is the hypocrisy of hegemony. The United States is a typical "hegemony anxiety disorder" for fear that the world will not be chaotic and fan the flames everywhere. In recent years, due to the relative decline of its own economic strength, the ability to mobilize various resources to serve its political and diplomatic goals has been limited. In desperation, the United States had to begin to transform from its former "active hegemony" to "negative hegemony", that is, from being confident in its ability to lead the world to being unable to maintain its leadership position; from tending to establish and maintain it. World order and peace enhance the international status, transforming into a tendency to maintain its current status by disrupting and destroying world order and peace; from not worrying about other countries and regions catching up with and surpassing themselves, transforming into a deep sense of the good development trend of some countries and regions Panic. The Americans are instigating right and wrong and creating chaos all over the world, in fact, to provoke a zero-sum game and reap the benefits of the fisherman.

The third is the hypocrisy of values. During the Cold War, the United States replaced capitalist democracy, which was hated by people, especially fiercely criticized by intellectuals, with "liberal democracy," because the words freedom and democracy can capture people's hearts. After the end of the Cold War, the United States relied on its strong strength to promote ideology all over the world. The elites of some countries that lack a mature social science system are "brainwashed" by this rhetoric, thinking that with the magic weapon of "liberal democracy", all problems will be solved, but the facts show that this is precisely the American cultural trap. Behind the so-called “universal values” is the “military-industrial complex” that represents powerful interest groups. Through cultural “war without gunpowder” and creating geopolitical chaos, the United States has the opportunity to show off its military power. Send troops overseas and engage in military expansion.

Remember that after the war in Afghanistan and Iraq, in 2004, the United States launched a high-profile "Greater Middle East Project" to transform the entire Islamic world, including political, economic, and social aspects. However, in the past 20 years, President Biden has shirked the responsibility of the U.S. promise with a single sentence. This is a typical "first chaos and last abandonment." Wherever the United States intervenes, there are turbulence and disasters, which cannot but be said to be the sadness of the world.


The U.S. plans to start a booster vaccination, and experts criticize: it may leave millions of people around the world without a vaccine

According to the National Public Radio (NPR) report on the 18th, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Valensky and many Biden government medical agency officials issued a joint statement on the same day that the United States plans to start on September 20 Provide the public with a booster shot of the new crown vaccine. US President Biden announced on the 19th that he and his wife Jill will be vaccinated with a booster shot.

The statement said that according to the latest assessment, the effectiveness of the new crown vaccine in preventing severe illness, hospitalization, and death will be reduced in the next few months, especially for people who are at high risk and who are vaccinated early. Therefore, the United States plans to provide the public with a booster shot of the new crown vaccine from September 20. A booster can be given 8 months after the second dose of Pfizer or Modena vaccine. Whether and how people who receive a single dose of Johnson & Johnson's new crown vaccine will receive a booster injection is yet to be determined by further research.

The U.S. decision to vaccinate a booster shot of the new crown vaccine has been criticized by some. The Washington Post quoted medical experts from the University of Chicago and the University of Denver as saying on the 19th that the Biden administration’s decision was wrong. Not only may it leave millions of people around the world without a vaccine, but there is also no evidence that the vaccine booster can effectively reduce the risk of hospitalization or death for healthy Americans. It is better to wait for reliable test data for the vaccine booster. . Michael Ryan, Executive Director of WHO's Health Emergencies Project, said: "It's like giving extra life jackets to people who are already wearing life jackets, but letting a bunch of people who don't have life jackets drown."

According to the New York Times report on the 19th, 162,724 new cases of new coronary pneumonia were newly confirmed in the United States on the 18th, with a total of 37.3 million confirmed cases, 1128 new deaths, and a total of 624,000 deaths. In the past week, Delta strain infections accounted for nearly 99% of the newly confirmed cases in the United States. CNN quoted CDC data on the 19th and reported that the hospitalization rate for new coronary pneumonia in the United States is soaring, and the hospitalization rate for people under the age of 50 has reached the highest level so far.

According to a report from the Associated Press on the 18th, Biden made a speech in response to the epidemic that night. In addition to calling on the American people to get a booster shot, Biden also announced a new plan to increase the vaccination rate, that is, mandatory vaccination for all employees in nursing homes. In addition, in response to the current phenomenon that 8 states in the United States prohibit public schools from forcing students to wear masks, Biden accused "certain politicians" of attempting to use the epidemic prevention issue to seek political gains, and asked the Secretary of Education to take legal actions against these politicians when necessary. The Washington Post stated that Biden was referring to several Republican governors headed by Texas Governor Abbott.

Published under Blog on 20 August, 2021.

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