05 September, 2021

Is the purpose of the US military's withdrawal from Afghanistan to deal with China and Russia?

After the US Department of Defense announced that the US had completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan, the war in Afghanistan that had lasted for 20 years was finally over. In his speech, US President Biden stated that the decision on Afghanistan does not only involve Afghanistan. He also insisted that this decision is a crucial step in adjusting US foreign policy and responding to competition with China and Russia.

Biden said, "The world is changing. We are in a fierce competition with China." He also pointed his finger at Russia, saying that the United States is responding to challenges from Russia in many ways. For this reason, the United States must strengthen its own competitiveness to meet these new challenges in the 21st century competition. In addition, Biden also claimed: "In this competition, what China and Russia most want to see is the United States in Afghanistan for another 10 years."

Regarding Biden's statement, Russian State Duma Member Pushkov lamented: But it is difficult to imagine a firm "interventionist" and "supporter of democratic exports" who would surrender without a fight. At the same time, he pointedly pointed out that the United States actually wanted to "concentrate its forces against China and Russia."

Regarding Biden's statement, on September 3, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi also responded by telephone with the new Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahhiyan. Wang Yi said that the US claimed that the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan was to concentrate its forces against China and Russia. This is not only to find an excuse for its own failure, but also to once again expose the nature of its attempt to continue power politics in the world. Wang Yi also sounded a wake-up call to the United States, saying that if it fails to truly learn the lessons it owes and completely change its course, the United States is bound to make even greater mistakes after making mistakes in Afghanistan, and move from a failure in Afghanistan to a greater failure.

A "Melee" is about to be staged in Japanese politics. Abe wants to support her as the "first female prime minister"?

After Yoshihide Suga suddenly announced that he would not seek re-election, who would become the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party, and then the new prime minister of Japan, aroused great attention from the outside world.

The election of the president of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party will be announced on the 17th and voting on the 29th. The wrestling among the various factions has become increasingly fierce. At present, many party figures such as Fumio Kishida, Sanae Takaichi, Taro Kono have expressed their intent to stand for election.

The drama of the crowds has already begun, and the successor is in suspense. Analysts believe that the name of Japan's 100th prime minister sounds glamorous, but no matter who is elected, he still faces a mess.

Competition is getting fierce

Yoshihide Suga retired without warning, making many people in the Liberal Democratic Party eager to become the vacant president.

In addition to the former Foreign Minister who has already expressed his views on participating in the election, the former Liberal Democratic Party's former political investigation chairman Kishida Fumio and former General Affairs Minister Sanae Takaichi, the Minister of Administrative Reform Kono Taro and the Liberal Democratic Party Acting Secretary-General Seiko Noda announced their intention to participate in the competition on the 3rd. The minister and former secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party Shi Pomao and the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's political investigation Bowen Shimomura also have aspirations.

With the increasingly fierce competition within the party, who is most likely to stand out? Wu Jinan, honorary chairman of the Shanghai Japanese Society and a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, predicted that a dazzling melee is about to take place in Japanese politics.

Fumio Kishida, who has a high reputation in the Liberal Democratic Party and rich political experience, is a popular figure in this election. Compared with other people, he has a clearer political proposition. Earlier, it was made that the Liberal Democratic Party members should be 73 years old. The leader of the Liberal Democratic Party Campaign promises such as one term a year, up to three consecutive terms, and the "Medical Refugee Zero" plan to solve the problem of the shortage of beds for COVID-19 patients.

The 64-year-old Kishida Fumio was popular among party members. "Although he is in the fifth largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, the Kishida faction, the members of the Hosoda faction and the Aso faction of the first and second largest factions tend to favor him. He seems to have a greater chance of winning." Wu Jinan analyzed, "Kishida's weakness lies in the people. China’s reputation is not high, and every poll always lags behind, but this is not the deciding factor either."

In addition, Japanese media revealed on the 4th that Yoshihide Suga expressed his intention to support Taro Kono to the people around him. Compared to Fumio Kishida, the 58-year-old Kono Taro has a lot more publicity. He has about 2.35 million followers on Twitter, especially a large number of young fans, so the public has a high reputation. However, his weak coordination skills and lack of stability are also obvious.

Ishiba Shigeru, who has "accompanyed" four presidential elections and repeated defeats, is also a highly popular player. He publicly stated on the 3rd that if the conditions and circumstances are right, he can prepare for the prime minister.

"As an'veteran athlete', Shi Pomao has popular popularity, but there is still a lack of like-minded people in the party." Wu Jinan pointed out, "He is the former leader of the Shipo faction. The Shipo faction has only 17 members of parliament, and the Liberal Democratic Party presidential candidate must There are 20 Liberal Democratic Party members jointly recommended."

In addition, after learning the news of Yoshihide Suga's withdrawal from the election, Shimomura's blog, who wanted to abandon the election, seemed to have "killed" back. The 67-year-old is the oldest, although he is from the Hosoda School, his popularity is somewhat lacking.

Caption: Takaichi Sanae and former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe are close to each other. Source: GJ

Female players attract attention

The presidential election also triggered speculation about whether Japan will have the first female prime minister. The former Minister of General Affairs Sanae Takaichi and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had a close relationship with them. Japanese media reported on the 4th that Abe intends to support Sanae Takashi.

The 60-year-old Takaichi Sanae graduated from the Matsushita Political and Economic School, the cradle of Japanese politicians. He was elected to the House of Representatives in 1993 and officially entered the political arena. As early as 20 years ago, she revealed her ambitions. In the book "The Prosperity Spectrum of Japan in the 21st Century", she expressed her ambition to "be the first female prime minister of Japan".

Sanae Takaichi left the impression of quick talk and good sociability, but his political views were on the right. Not only did he visit the Yasukuni Shrine many times, but he also repeatedly spoke harsh words about China.

Another woman running for the election is Seiko Nagano, acting secretary of the Liberal Democratic Party. In 1987, Seiko Noda, who was nearly 26 years old, was elected as a member of the Gifu Prefecture Assembly. The record for the youngest member of the assembly has been maintained for a long time. In 1998, at the age of 37, she served as Minister of Post in the Keizo Obuchi cabinet, becoming the youngest cabinet member in post-war Japan. External analysis believes that for Noda Seiko, who has repeatedly broken Japanese political records, affinity is her killer.

In addition to the above-mentioned six people, there may be people who will join the competition. It does not rule out the possibility that no more than half of the first round of elections will be held by the top two candidates in the second round of elections.

Caption: The energy of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cannot be underestimated Oriental IC

Abe behind the scenes

The election of the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan has always been behind the faction disputes, and this time is no exception.

At present, Fumio Kishida, whose attitude has been expressed early, has won the support of some members of the Hosoda faction and the Aso faction of the first and second largest factions, and occupies a favorable position among the party factions. Although Taro Kono, who belongs to the Aso faction, expressed his intention to run for the election to Aso, he received an ambiguous response, but most of the young members of the faction were optimistic about him. Despite the lack of power within the party, Shibaimao has news that Toshihiro Nikai, secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, may bet his chips on him. According to other sources, Abe hopes to promote the Hosoda faction to support Takaichi Sanae, making her the "biggest dark horse."

"The Hosoda faction, the largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, has 96 congressmen, and the second-order faction led by Toshihiro Nikai, who has a lot of political resources, also has a pivotal weight." Industry insiders believe that the movements of the Hosoda faction and the second-order faction are particularly worthy of attention.

As Japan’s political arena is changing again, Shinzo Abe returned to the public eye. "Really excellent job done, I am very grateful for this successor." Abe commented on Suga Yoshihide on the 3rd.

"Suga Yoshihide's resignation is not unrelated to the Liberal Democratic Party's refusal to support him, especially Abe playing a lot of small actions behind his back." Wu Jinan believes that Abe has another part in his heart. It’s unlikely that he himself will come out, but it does not rule out that he will become the trader behind Sanae's leadership."

It is foreseeable that Abe will take over the Hosoda faction in the future and is an important role that cannot be underestimated in Japanese politics.

Faced with "difficult tasks"

No matter who wins in the end, the successor still faces the "difficult tasks" left by his predecessor, and it is difficult to break some inherent situations in Japan in a short period of time. First, the diplomatic posture of "one-sided" toward the United States based on the Japan-US alliance will not change immediately; second, Japan's economic and technological stagnation or even continued decline will not change.

However, the new prime minister may also bring some changes to Japan.

The first is partial control of the epidemic. The current epidemic in Japan is severe. Not only has the cumulative number of confirmed cases exceeded 1.5 million, but there is also a shortage of medical resources that are difficult to find. After the new cabinet takes office, the control of the epidemic is a top priority. Coupled with the increase in the proportion of vaccination, the spread of the epidemic is expected to be controlled to a certain extent.

The second is to fine-tune the political ecology. In the upcoming House of Representatives elections, if the Liberal Democratic Party and the opposition parties have a major change in the seats, there may be a relatively normal situation of checks and balances in the Japanese political arena, and some of the long-term ruling legacy of Abe may also be cleared to some extent.

"If not, the political situation in Japan may continue to be turbulent, reappearing the chaos of'one phase in a year'." Wu Jinan believes.

Biden responded publicly for the first time: This is not American!

According to a report by The Washington Post on the afternoon of the 3rd local time, U.S. President Biden condemned Texas’ new abortion law as “un-American” when answering reporters’ questions at the White House. It has established a reward mechanism for mutual reporting and prosecution, thus establishing a "harmful civil law protector system." According to the report, this is the first time Biden has commented on the matter in public.

Washington Post screenshot

The new Texas abortion law mentioned here is the most restrictive abortion law in the United States, and it will be officially implemented in Texas on September 1. The law prohibits a pregnant woman from having an abortion after six weeks of pregnancy. It also encourages individuals to sue anyone suspected of helping a woman to have an abortion and set up a bounty. If the prosecution is successful, the prosecutor will receive a reward of $10,000.

CNN said on the 3rd that " the Texas bill is the most stringent among developed countries. " The report quoted WHO data as saying that among the developed countries, no country like Texas, USA, restricts the allowable abortion time to six weeks. The report also said that some more conservative countries in the world, such as Poland, Slovakia, and Nicaragua, have adopted strict measures to restrict abortion, and now Texas has "joined their ranks."

Among the states in the United States, Texas women have the shortest time allowed to have an abortion after pregnancy (the darkest color). Pictured from CNN

"I will continue to firmly support the'Roe vs Wade' (Roe vs Wade) case," the Washington Post quoted Biden as saying on the 3rd. "The most harmful thing about the new Texas abortion bill is that it creates a civil society The law-guard system , people go to get rewards..." According to the report, Biden did not go on. "What we are talking about (the new Texas law) is almost'unAmerican ' ."

The so-called "Row v. Wade case" refers to the fact that in 1973, the Supreme Federal Law of the United States ruled by a 7-2 vote that the abortion of a woman aliased to Jane Roe is protected by the Constitution. This heavy sentence provided strong legal support for female abortion in the following 50 years.

"Someone told me that under existing laws, it is possible for the U.S. Department of Justice to seek whether some measures can be taken to restrict individual states' individual actions in enforcing the law," Biden said. "I don't know yet, so Can’t say too much."

The Washington Post also noticed that in Biden's comments on the incident on the 3rd, the word "abortion" was hardly used. As a Catholic, Biden did not use "abortion" itself as a "main attack" in criticizing the new Texas law, which also frustrated some activists who advocate the right to abortion. A person who created a website called "Does Biden Talk about Abortion?" said that Biden rarely uses this term.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki (Jen Psaki) said on the 2nd that Biden has asked his cabinet secretary to look at the US government to find ways to counter the new Texas abortion law. This matter is being coordinated by the Gender Policy Council, a group created by Biden that focuses on women's rights.

Biden made his first public abortion in the White House on the 3rd.

Prior to this, Biden issued a statement on the 2nd to severely criticize the new law, saying that the law is an "unprecedented attack" on women's rights and is the most private part of allowing strangers to interfere with women's personal health issues. He stated that "this extreme law in Texas flagrantly violates the rights guaranteed by the Constitution established by the'Raw v. Wade' case, breaking the precedent for nearly 50 years." Biden said the law would "seriously impair women's access to health protection." , Especially for people of color and low-income groups."

Biden also claimed to mobilize the entire federal government to respond, and some Democrats also used this as a weapon to launch an "offensive" against the Republican Party. "The New York Times" commented on the 2nd that abortion rights are caught in the American political whirlpool, or will have an impact on a series of local elections in the United States and even the mid-term congressional elections next year.

But the "Washington Post" report on the 3rd also noted that so far, Biden , who has been chanting slogans, has not announced any specific actions .

Before he uttered the horoscope, Fumio Kishida yelled "to deal with China"!

If you want to build momentum, you have to talk to China? Japanese media: Japanese prime minister's competitor Fumio Kishida declared that "confronting China" will be his government's "primary task"

In order to build momentum, Fumio Kishida, who is generally regarded by the Japanese media as a strong competitor to the "new president of the Liberal Democratic Party," has also begun to shout "to deal with China." According to the latest news from the Nikkei Asian Review on September 4, Fumio Kishida declared in his interview that he was “deeply shocked” by China’s tough behavior in diplomacy and economics, and that “counting against China” would be the “first priority” of his government. Task".

Screenshot of the Nikkei Asian Review report

According to reports, Fumio Kishida accepted an interview with Nikkei on September 2, which was the day before Yoshihide Suga announced his abandonment of the president of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party on the 3rd. In the interview, he declared that in order to protect the "basic values ​​of freedom, democracy, the rule of law, and human rights," "we will cooperate with countries with the same values ​​such as the United States, Europe, India, and Australia, and oppose the authoritarian system."

According to the report, Fumio Kishida’s views on security and foreign policy reflect his four and a half years of experience as Japan’s foreign minister under the leadership of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Fumio Kishida data map

"Economic security is the top priority of his agenda." According to the report, as Washington and Beijing compete for technological dominance, Japan, the United States, Taiwan and South Korea are vying to coordinate to ensure that semiconductors and other products of strategic importance are available. Supply chain security. The report quoted Kishida as saying, "We need to consider national security from multiple angles, not just force." He said that he will focus on the economy to protect Japan's geopolitical interests.

With regard to the so-called "defense," Fumio Kishida made no secret of it. According to the report, he emphasized that Japan needs to have the ability to "attack enemy missile bases" to prevent attacks. "Even if the (Japanese) missile defense system intercepts the first wave of missiles," having the ability to attack enemy missile bases can "protect people's lives when the second wave or more missiles strike." He also said, "Missile technology is developing very rapidly, so I want to conduct a more thorough discussion on the basis of this reality in order to defend the lives and livelihoods of the public."

There seems to be a trace of this idea. The report mentioned that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe originally planned to make a decision on acquiring the above-mentioned "attack capability" before the end of 2020, but his successor Yoshihide Suga postponed the discussion . The position of the Japanese government at this stage is that if there are no other options, according to the Japanese Constitution, this kind of attack capability is allowed. However, Japanese constitutional scholars believe that this will deviate from the "pure defense policy" of Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.

According to reports, in the interview, Kishida also expounded his views on issues such as "wealth distribution" and "increasing workers' income", and said that he would "stick to" the Suga Yoshihide government's goal of achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Therefore, he believes, "We need to realistically evaluate whether to build or expand nuclear power plants."

"This is a test of our political responsibility," Kishida also chanted, "I will prove that the Liberal Democratic Party is a self-renewing and dynamic party."

The Liberal Democratic Party, the ruling party in Japan, held a meeting on August 26 to determine that the presidential election will start on September 17, and the vote will be held on September 29. Since the prime minister of Japan is generally held by the president of the political party that holds the majority of seats in the House of Representatives, if the Liberal Democratic Party remains the largest party in the upcoming House of Representatives elections, it also means that the person who will become the president of the Liberal Democratic Party will become the prime minister of Japan.

Such speculation and the so-called "China threat theory" from time to time seem to have become a common practice of many politicians. Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi recently stated that Japan is particularly concerned about the situation in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. China is trying to unilaterally change the status quo in the region by "force and coercion." A spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense of China previously stated that Japan disregarded the basic norms of international relations, played up the so-called "Chinese military threat," blatantly accused China of legitimate maritime activities, and continued to make excuses for its own military expansion. This is very wrong and worthy of responsibility. Responsible, China firmly opposes this.

Published under Blog on 05 September, 2021.