There are more and more signs that after the British aircraft carrier arrived in the Indo-Pacific waters, the US Secretary of Defense Austin rushed to the Philippines, Vietnam and Singapore, the US Secretary of State Blincoln visited India, and the US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman ended his trip to China. Biden will start. A new round of layout.
Because US Vice President Harris will soon come to the Asia-Pacific, and German warships will also come to join in the fun.
On July 30, three more noteworthy things happened in the world, and the situation is quietly changing.
The first thing is that Germany is preparing to send troops to the Indo-Pacific, and Japan's confidence has greatly increased. On July 30, Japan revealed that German warships will enter Asia in August and will make a round in the Indo-Pacific waters and strengthen military cooperation with Japan and Australia.
Prior to this, the United Kingdom has stated that the "Queen Elizabeth" aircraft carrier will arrive in Japan in September, and the United Kingdom intends to station troops in Japan forever. The U.S. military emphasized that it will deploy more U.S. troops in the Indo-Pacific next, and the U.S. wants to station troops in Pakistan and Vietnam.
Of course, the "German warship intends to strengthen cooperation with Japan and Australia" is only a Japanese statement. Considering the tossing of Japan during this period and Germany's silence, it is still unknown whether it is credible.
Merkel's term of office will end in September, and Germany’s dispatch of troops to the Indo-Pacific was announced early in 2020. Merkel did not comment on this matter, which shows that Germany actually has another layout.
Before the arrival of the British aircraft carrier, the British military had repeatedly challenged China and issued strong signals overtly and secretly, but Germany did not do so. Merkel is very clear that Germany is very dependent on the Chinese market. From the point of view of interest, it is not in the interests of Germany to stay in line with the United States, Britain, Japan and Australia.
Of course, whether it is Germany or the United States, we should all listen to what we say and watch our deeds. If German warships conduct joint military exercises with the United States, Britain, Japan and Australia, the situation will change.
Let's see how Merkel chooses.
The second incident, Abe's comeback, also talked about the four-party mechanism of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, as well as Britain, France and Germany sending troops to the Indo-Pacific and the rise of China. On July 29, the United States and Japan held the so-called "strategic forum." Abe participated as a special guest and also delivered a speech during which Abe spoke about his views on the situation in the Indo-Pacific.
Abe believes that the reason why Britain, France and Germany decided to come to the Indo-Pacific is inseparable from Japan's efforts and win-win. In addition, the United States, Japan, India and Australia should embrace the four-nation dialogue mechanism and gradually turn it into a "paramilitary alliance." Abe said that from Japan's perspective, the rising China is the biggest challenge. The future China will have an indisputable influence, and Japan must be prepared to deal with it.
Abe emphasized that in recent years, China has brought great pressure and challenges to Japan. China's economy has reached 70% of that of the United States. In the military field, Japan can no longer maintain an advantage over China.
Like Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, in addition to his sense of presence, Abe has not forgotten to challenge China's bottom line. His words and deeds have a lot of disregard for facts and smear other countries, which is unfair.
Of course, in Abe's view, these are nothing. What Japan wants is to allow the United States, Britain, France and Germany to intervene in the situation in the Indo-Pacific, and then continue to promote the escalation of the conflict. As a result, Japan has the opportunity to rise from the chaos.
Japan’s ambitions are becoming more and more open, but in order to put pressure on China, the United States is deliberately condoning Japan, and Britain and France are also deliberately taking advantage of Japan.
The so-called allies are just superficial brothers. As for whether Japan can succeed, let's wait and see.
The third thing is that the Philippines sent a "great gift" to the United States. Between countries, the most important thing is always interest. This sentence is indeed not unreasonable.
No one thought that the front foot was still thanking China's Duterte, and he turned his head and gave Biden a "great gift."
On July 30, the Philippines announced that it would resume the temporarily terminated "Visiting Forces Agreement," which was signed by the United States and the Philippines. Duterte announced in 2020 that the Philippines would temporarily Terminate the agreement until the United States gives the Philippines a satisfactory explanation.
At that time, Duterte, who threatened to "must drive US troops out of the Philippines", wanted to take the opportunity to knock the US off.
The question is, why did Duterte suddenly change his attitude?
First of all, after leaving Singapore, US Secretary of Defense Austin rushed to the Philippines. The two sides will definitely strengthen exchanges in the military field. In this case, Duterte chose to submit a certificate of nomination to Austin. It was more appropriate. Otherwise, how would Austin explain to Biden?
Secondly, Duterte's term of office will end in 2022. The pro-American forces in the Philippines are constantly condemning and mocking Duterte's external weakness. Although Duterte has no intention of choosing a side to support the United States, he will not openly contradict the United States at the moment when he is about to withdraw from the Philippine political arena.
In addition, the United States is working to win over the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam. Duterte's change of attitude at this time can indeed bring a lot of benefits to the Philippines.
As for how Duterte will move next, we still need to wait.
A storm is hitting Asia. Let's move forward. What awaits us after the storm is bound to be a broader future.
Embassy in the UK: China insists!
A: China has always supported the scientific traceability of the virus and opposed the politicization of traceability. The second-stage traceability should be extended on the basis of the first-stage traceability. It should be guided by the relevant resolutions of the World Health Assembly and carried out after full discussion and consultation by member states. The first phase of virus traceability has already been carried out, especially if there is a clear conclusion, it should not be repeated. Instead, the early case search should be promoted in many countries around the world on the basis of full and extensive consultations among member states. Traceability work.
Question: Why does China insist that the next stage of traceability work should be carried out in many countries around the world?
A: For some time, the international community has seen more and more reports of new coronavirus cases in multiple locations around the world in the second half of 2019. In the United States alone, there have been at least five states that had new coronavirus infections earlier than the first confirmed case in the United States. report time. This also shows once again that tracing the source of the new coronavirus is a complex scientific issue, which should be carried out by global scientists based on a global perspective.
(Original title: Ten Questions from the Spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in the UK on the Traceability of the New Coronavirus (5), Ten Questions from the Spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in the UK on the Traceability of the New Coronavirus (6))
The cancellation of wearing masks indoors is the "biggest mistake" of the Biden administration! The U.S. epidemic is getting worse, citing public criticism from public health experts
According to overseas reports, Worldometer's real-time statistics show that as of around 6:30 on August 2, Beijing time, a total of 35,766,674 cases of new coronary pneumonia have been confirmed in the United States and a total of 629,290 deaths. Compared with the data at 6:30 the previous day, there were 32,707 new confirmed cases and 90 new deaths in the United States.
▲ Pedestrians walked on the streets of New York, USA on July 30. According to Xinhua News Agency
According to rolling data from the US media, in the past week, the average number of new cases in a single day in the US has exceeded 70,000. The surge in cases has caused widespread concern. American disease trackers predict that due to the ravages of highly infectious delta mutant strains and the large-scale recovery of normal activities, by August, this mutated virus may lead to a single day of new diagnoses in the United States. The number of cases is as high as 140,000 to 300,000.
In this regard, an epidemiologist in the United States said that the relaxation of preventive measures is one of the main reasons for the surge in cases. And American public health expert Linna Wen directly criticized the Biden administration’s mistakes in epidemic prevention, saying that “Biden absolutely prematurely announced the government’s victory in the fight against the new crown pneumonia.”
U.S. epidemic prevention traps "vicious circle" summer cases surge
The number of new cases in a single day may reach 140,000 to 300,000
Justin Lessler, a professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina in the United States, has assisted in predicting the development of the pandemic through the New Crown Scenario Modeling Center. He said, “I am very worried. We may be too optimistic to predict the number of cases in the fall. reduce."
In the past week alone, the number of new cases in a single day in the United States has risen by 60%. The number of daily hospitalizations has increased by about 40%, and the number of deaths has increased by nearly 30%. The average daily death toll is now more than 300.
▲ Pedestrians walked on the streets of New York, USA on July 30. According to Xinhua News Agency
David W. Dowdy, associate professor of epidemiology at the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University, said, “The situation is getting worse, at least for now, the spread of the new crown in the United States has not really Slow down.
The delta mutant strain was first discovered in the United States in March of this year and spread rapidly, becoming the main virus circulating in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that more than 80% of new cases in the United States are now caused by the delta mutant strain.
Columbia University epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman said that another reason for the recent surge in US cases is the relaxation of preventive measures, such as no longer wearing masks or maintaining social distancing.
"The core problem is that people are starting to forget about the epidemic and the virus," Shaman pointed out. "American bars and baseball stadiums are full of people who don't wear masks."
In terms of epidemic prevention, the United States has fallen into a "vicious circle": When people begin to feel lax about adopting epidemic prevention measures, a surge of cases follows, which in turn encourages people to take more preventive measures. Ali Muqdad, an epidemiologist at the Institute of Health Measurement and Evaluation at the University of Washington, points out that Americans are better at coping with a surge in cases than being preemptive. He also said that if every American wears a mask—although unlikely—the number of cases could be reduced by about 10 times.
Dowdy also said that there is no scientific method that can clearly distinguish the effects of the delta mutant strain from relaxing preventive measures. This is because, in the United States, these two things happened in the same time window. Dowdy said that he boldly guessed that in the past three to four months, the impact of the surge in new crown cases caused by the relaxation of the United States' anti-epidemic policy is far greater than the impact of the rapid spread of the delta mutant strain.
Public health expert
The cancellation of indoor masks in May was the "biggest mistake" of the Biden administration
On August 1, local time, the chief infectious disease expert in the United States, Fauci, warned that “the epidemic will get worse” and that as more infectious delta variants lead to a surge in new crown cases, the United States may see more "Pain and suffering".
▲Fuqitu according to overseas network
With the surge in the number of newly confirmed cases across the United States, many states, counties and cities in the United States have re-implemented mask orders in the past few days.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced on May 13 that it no longer recommends that people who have been vaccinated wear masks. However, on July 27, they changed their mouths and recommended that those who have been vaccinated wear masks in indoor public places in high-spread areas; those who have not been vaccinated Everywhere in the United States wear masks in indoor public places; primary and secondary school students wear masks regardless of whether they are vaccinated or not.
In this regard, U.S. public health expert Linna Wen said: "President Biden absolutely prematurely announced the government's victory in the fight against the new crown pneumonia."
Linna, a former health commissioner in Baltimore, Maryland, said in an interview that the "biggest mistake" made by the Biden administration was that the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) cancelled in May this year that "you must Guidelines for wearing masks indoors.
▲According to Xinhuanet
Linna said that because the CDC guidelines do not require individuals to prove that they have been vaccinated, "people who have not been vaccinated start to behave as if they have been vaccinated."
"What did we see as a result? What we saw was exactly what I and many public health experts predicted at the time. The number of infections increased sharply. Now, with the spread of the delta mutant strain, the requirement to wear masks has returned, but there is no People are willing to listen again." Linna also said, "President Biden is definitely too early to declare victory."
In a column published in the Washington Post last Thursday, Linna bluntly stated that the CDC needs to clarify information about wearing masks and emphasized that "the problem is people who have not been vaccinated." She said that the CDC has an obligation to advise people if they live with family members who have compromised immune systems or have not been vaccinated, they need to wear masks because they may be carriers of the new coronavirus. However, in the latest CDC guidelines for the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic, people who have been vaccinated are advised to wear masks indoors in areas where the new crown has been severely transmitted. This implies that the new crown virus is at risk of transmission among people who have been vaccinated.
Linna pointed out that Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, has stated that the unvaccinated population is the main reason for the high transmission rate.
▲According to Xinhuanet
"Due to the surge in new coronavirus infections, the CDC is also trying to urge localities and companies to re-implement the requirements for indoor masks. This is the correct policy, but it uses the wrong interpretation." Linna wrote in her column. "People who are vaccinated are not the main source of transmission. Even if everyone who is vaccinated wears a mask, it will not solve the problem, because most transmissions are transmitted by people who have not been vaccinated."
Linna believes that the CDC should issue a statement to clarify, “We need to re-wear masks indoors, not because vaccinated people have'breakthrough infections' leading to an increase in cases, but because we do not trust people who have not been vaccinated will take the initiative. The right action."
When asked whether the United States should start compulsory vaccination, Linna said, “We know that vaccines can protect children. Our 50 states have laws that require children to be vaccinated, which is why we don’t have polio. , The cause of smallpox, and why we can reduce the diseases that once caused large-scale child deaths to historically low levels. Therefore, in the face of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, we can do the same."
Is the economy down? The United States wants to ask China for help, but we have to listen to what it says and watch what it does
In terms of foreign strategy, U.S. politicians have always been very good at using two options. One is to "slap a slap and give some sweetness." In the case of "North Stream 2" and returning to the Iran nuclear agreement, Biden will "do both soft and hard." "Played to the fullest.
In addition, the United States likes to use extreme pressure and no chips to create showdown chips to force its opponents to make concessions at the negotiating table. The main target is China and Russia. Trump Biden knows very well that the United States' tactics in dealing with the Soviet Union, the European Union and Japan, China and Russia have kept them in mind. Fooling and deceiving are useless to China and Russia.
Therefore, the United States can only put pressure on China and Russia by "fanning the flames and forcing its allies to choose sides."
The problem is that the arrival of the epidemic has completely broken Biden's strategic layout of "courting Japan, South Korea, India and Australia to exert pressure on China" and working with NATO members to deal with Russia.
Because the U.S. economy can't support it.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen told Biden that Trump’s Sino-US trade war actually cost the United States a heavy price, and that the losses caused by the trade war to the United States far outweigh the pressure on China. If part of the trade war plan can be cancelled and the tax rate appropriately lowered, it may be more in the interests of the United States.
More and more facts show that with the soaring US prices, the depreciation of the US dollar, the decline of the US dollar's reputation, the insufficient consumption of US consumer goods, and the EU and Japan cannot help the US, Biden has an intention to "see China for help."
Biden is now facing a dilemma. On the one hand, due to US strategic considerations, the United States must do everything possible to contain China, and the British aircraft carrier has already arrived in Asia, and German warships will soon come to the Indo-Pacific waters. Japan, India, and Australia have all submitted nomination certificates to the United States. .
Under such circumstances, if Biden releases a friendly signal to China, allies will feel "deceived by the United States." Then it will be difficult for Biden to think about being the leader of the martial arts.
But on the other hand, if the United States wants to alleviate the urgent need, it should buy Chinese products and let China pay for the excess US dollars, otherwise the United States will continue to face difficulties.
what to do? This is the challenge Biden has to face.
In the recent period, Biden sent five heavyweights to Asia, namely, the US First Lady Jill, US Secretary of State Brinken, US Secretary of Defense Austin, US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman, and Harris, who is about to rush to Singapore and Vietnam. .
At least five details are worth noting.
First, among the five heavyweights, only Sherman came to China, and China and the United States have conducted close dialogues and promised to strengthen cooperation on issues such as the Iranian nuclear agreement and addressing global climate change. Of course, China also emphasized its position to the United States, that is, the United States must change course, admit its mistakes, and no longer harm China's interests.
Jill only went to Japan, and he went to participate in the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics. Obviously, Biden, who is old and often utterly wrong, is unwilling to go to Tokyo to join in the fun.
Second, Brinken went to India and held talks with Modi and Jason Jason. There were differences and cooperation between the United States and India. The two sides had close exchanges on issues such as the Afghanistan issue, the Indian epidemic, and pressure on China. What was said is unknown to the outside world.
Of course, Brinken also sent a strong signal to Modi. For example, the United States is dissatisfied with the human rights situation in India, and the United States calls on India to cancel its plan to purchase the Russian S-400. Brinken emphasized that if India refuses to make changes, the United States may impose sanctions on India.
It is worth mentioning that Modi deployed eight Rafale fighters on the Sino-Indian border as soon as Brinken finished his visit to India. This shows that India really wants to use the power of the United States to rise.
Third, Austin went to Singapore, the Philippines and Vietnam. Duterte gave Austin a "great gift", which is to restore the temporarily terminated "Visiting Forces Agreement."
Vietnam did not promise to provide military bases for the US military, but the US and Vietnam still reached an agreement.
All in all, Austin's Asia trip did not meet Biden's expectations. Southeast Asian countries are very dependent on the Chinese market. Therefore, the Philippines, Vietnam and Singapore are not willing to help the United States put pressure on China.
Because of this, US Vice President Harris decided to come to Singapore and Vietnam. Of course, Harris and Austin are discussing different topics. Austin is to create a "Asia-Pacific version of NATO headed by the United States," but Harris will play the so-called human rights card and throw olive branches on Singapore and Vietnam on specific issues such as epidemic prevention and economic cooperation.
Fourth, Austin once sent a friendly signal to China. Austin said that the United States is committed to coping with common challenges with China and that the United States wants to establish a stable relationship with China. The US military will resolutely defend US interests, but will not seek confrontation.
At that time, Austin's remarks were considered one of the signs that "the US Secretary of Defense intends to visit China," because the United States did just that before the US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman came to China.
Of course, Austin did not visit China in the end.
Fifth, I return to the views of Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary. Trump withdrew from American politics, but Biden still uses many of Trump's strategies. In Yellen's view, if the United States wants to ease the crisis, the most important thing is to ease Sino-US relations, but "how to do it" is a difficult problem, because the United States is indeed facing too many challenges.
The United States should be clear that if it wants to ask China for help, it must show a sincere attitude and practical actions, rather than go back and deceive China. If not, the United States should not expect us to extend a helping hand.
In fact, in order to buy Chinese products and exchange excess US dollars for goods, U.S. Secretary of State Blincoln once called China, but for the time being, the United States, who wanted to ask China for help, did not get what it wanted.
The situation is still changing, let's see how Biden moves next.
The most worried thing in the United States has happened! The new crown epidemic has worsened again, can the Biden administration be able to handle it?
According to data released by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on July 31, local time, the epidemic situation in the United States is urgent. The number of new confirmed cases on July 30 alone has exceeded 100,000. On August 1, local time, the chief medical adviser of the Biden administration, Anthony Fauci, stated that nearly 100 million people in the United States are eligible for vaccination, but none of those people choose to be vaccinated against the new crown, which makes the situation in the U.S. worse and worse. , The U.S. government must make more efforts, because these people who do not want to get the new crown vaccine are the people who are infected with the virus.
According to the Associated Press, Fauci issued a warning that more "pain and suffering" would come when the number of new crown cases rose again. Fauci believes that the United States will not implement more lockdown measures because he believes that as long as enough people are vaccinated for the new crown, the "pain and suffering" can be avoided.
According to a CNBC report, Scott Gottlieb, former director of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said in an interview that the current situation in the U.S. is worse than the official data released by the U.S. The Delta variant The spread of more than any kind of new crown variants. Gottlieb said: "If the United States has more than 1 million new cases of new crowns in one day, I would not be surprised, because the US government may only count one-tenth of the number of infections, or even not. To one tenth."
CNBC pointed out that on January 8, the highest single-day average number of new coronavirus cases in the United States exceeded 250,000. Only after the U.S. government promoted vaccination campaigns, the number of confirmed cases began to decline sharply. But in the last few weeks, the number of new cases in the United States has risen again. Gottlieb said that there are many infected people who have not been counted by the US government, and many people with mild symptoms will avoid testing for the new crown.
Dr. Thomas Dobbs, a health officer from the State of Mississippi in the United States, said: "The delta variant virus has hit the United States very hard and is expected to continue to put additional pressure on the US medical system." Dobbs also added. He added that there are 13 hospitals in Mississippi in the United States that do not have intensive care beds.
According to CNBC reports, the vast majority of severe cases in the United States have not been vaccinated against the new crown. Jen Kates, senior vice president of the Kaiser Family Foundation in the United States, said that the number of new crown cases continues to increase. Almost all hospitalizations and deaths of new crown cases have not been vaccinated against the new crown. These data have gradually made people realize , The new crown vaccine is the best choice to control the new crown epidemic.
It seems to confirm what Kate said, just after the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released data on new cases, the increase in the number of people receiving the new crown vaccine for the first time in the United States has risen rapidly. Kate said: "The increase in data also means that new people are receiving the first dose of the new crown vaccine."
In addition to vaccinations, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has also implemented new measures, recommending that people who have been vaccinated also wear masks. Because of the rapid increase in delta virus, even people who have been vaccinated against the new crown may be exposed to delta virus and indirectly spread delta virus to others. As of August 2, local time, there were 32,465 new cases in a single day in the United States, and 113 new deaths due to the new coronavirus. A total of 34,996,653 confirmed cases of new crowns, and a total of 613,223 confirmed deaths due to new crowns.
US media: Tension is escalating!
According to comprehensive reports, the maritime situation in the Middle East is up again. Recently, an oil tanker managed by an Israeli company was attacked by drones in the waters off Oman, causing two deaths, causing many concerns. Israel, the United Kingdom and the United States all believe that Iran is the "behind the scenes", and Iran firmly denies this, saying the allegations are baseless. According to US media analysis, after the attack on the tanker, maritime tensions in the Middle East are escalating.
Tanker attacked late at night
The sea turmoil in the Middle East re-emerges
The British military maritime agency notified on the 30th that an oil tanker was attacked in the waters near Oman late at night on July 29. According to reports, the tanker named "Mercer Street" was suspected of being attacked by one or more drones.
The shipping company operating the tanker subsequently issued a statement saying that the attack killed two crew members, including a British and a Romanian.
The ship’s management company stated that the ship was sailing from Dar es Salaam in Tanzania to Fujalia in the United Arab Emirates with no cargo on board.
According to Marine Traffic, a maritime tracking network, the ship sails under the Liberian flag. The ship is Japanese-owned and owned and managed by the London-based international management company Zodiac Maritime, which is led by Israeli shipping giant Eyal Ofer.
The ship’s management company also confirmed that the tanker later relied on its own power and sailed to a safe location under the escort of the US Navy.
On February 25, an Israeli cargo ship also exploded in the Gulf of Oman. The hull was damaged, but there were no casualties. The Israeli side believes that Iran is related to the explosion, but the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly opposes the allegation.
Anglo-U.S. accuses Iran of being "behind the scenes"
US media: Tensions are escalating
The tanker was managed by an Israeli company, and the attack caused the deaths of the British and Romanians. Therefore, after the incident, many countries paid close attention to it.
Israeli Prime Minister Bennett stated that Iran was the "man behind the attack" on the tanker.
According to a report by Al Jazeera, Israel’s Channel 13 military correspondent Or Heller described the attack on the tanker as a “terrorist act.” He said that the military intelligence community and the government had already held talks on how to respond to the attack.
US State Department spokesperson Price said that the country’s Secretary of State Brinken and Israeli Foreign Minister Rapide held talks. The two sides discussed the attack on the "Mercer Street" vessel and agreed to jointly investigate the incident with the United Kingdom and Romania. .
The British Foreign Secretary Raab also stated that the United Kingdom is negotiating with international partners to take coordinated measures to "retaliate against Iran for attacking the tanker "Meser Street"."
Raab said it was "illegal and cruel" to attack merchant ships on the high seas near the Gulf of Oman. Britain believes that the attack was "performed by Iran."
However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Khatibzad denied on August 1 that Iran had attacked a tanker managed by an Israeli company.
He stated that Israel must stop false allegations concerning Iran’s attack on oil tankers. These allegations are baseless and should be condemned. He also said that Israel’s related allegations are based on its ties with the United States. These allegations are intended to divert the public’s attention and that this interference method will not achieve its purpose.
According to US media analysis, after the attack on the tanker, maritime tensions in the Middle East are escalating.
According to a report on Peninsula Chinese, Lindsay Moran, a former official of the US Central Intelligence Agency, said that this was the first maritime attack that caused casualties since 2019; secondly, the time of the accident coincided with the deadlock in the Iranian nuclear agreement. She said that "it seems we are entering a period of potential instability" and the situation between Iran and Israel will continue to escalate and have an impact on the region.